Is Solar Still Worth It Under Pakistan's New Net Billing Rules?

Pakistan's solar economics changed materially in late 2025. If you're comparing a solar quote against numbers you saw a year or two ago — or against a calculator that hasn't been updated — you're likely looking at a payback period that no longer reflects reality.

What actually changed

Under the old 1:1 net metering framework, every unit your panels exported to the grid offset your consumption at close to the same rate you'd otherwise pay to import — near-retail parity. Under NEPRA's Prosumer Regulations 2025, effective 16 December 2025, new installations instead earn the National Average Export Purchase Price (NAEPP) for exported units — reported at roughly Rs13/kWh, down from an indicative prior export rate of around Rs26-27/kWh for many consumers. That's less than half.

If you signed a net metering agreement before the cutoff, you're grandfathered onto the old 1:1 terms until your agreement's original expiry — but adding panels or otherwise materially modifying the system triggers a mandatory switch to net billing rates.

Why this makes self-consumption the whole game

Under net billing, a unit you generate and use yourself is worth far more than a unit you export. Self-consumed units still avoid the full import tariff you'd otherwise pay; exported units earn the much lower NAEPP rate. This flips the sizing logic that made sense under net metering: instead of maximising system size to offset 100% of consumption (much of it via export), it's often smarter to size closer to your daytime load and self-consumption pattern.

So, is it still worth it?

For most households, yes — but the payback period is longer than it would have been under the old rules, and it depends heavily on your self-consumption ratio. A household that's home during the day, or that shifts heavy loads (AC, water pumps, laundry) to daylight hours, gets meaningfully better economics than one that's empty all day and exports most of its generation.

Run your own numbers on our solar payback calculator — it explicitly shows the gap between what you'd save under net billing versus the old grandfathered net metering terms, so you can see exactly how much of the difference comes from the policy change rather than your system's performance. Pair it with the solar system size calculator to size for your actual usage pattern rather than for maximum offset.

What we won't tell you

This is a simple-payback calculation only — installed cost divided by annual saving, with a nominal 25-year total. We don't run a discount rate, NPV, or IRR on it, and we don't compare it against a financed/EMI scenario or an interest-bearing savings account. If someone hands you a solar quote with an "ROI" figure that includes any of those, ask them to show their math before trusting the headline number.

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